有效证券市场及其启示

随着我国经济体制改革的深入进行,证券买卖方兴未艾,越来越多的人想知道有关证券方面的知识,了解证券市场的运行机制,从而进行证券买卖活动。     

浅谈Word中替换命令的妙用

随着字处理软件Word的使用范围的加大,人们对它的某些操作只了解其表面含义,并没有将其扩展开来,如替换命令,仅知道用它来替换文字,但对其很多应用人们还不怎么了解,如在替换字符格式、段落标记、分页符、换行和其他项目等方面还不怎么熟悉。本人结合多年来对Word2000的教学,谈一谈Word中替换命令的一些妙用。     

The differences in hotel selection among various types of travellers: A comparative analysis with a useful bounded rationality behavioural decision support model

This study aims to investigate the hotel selection differences among different types of travellers through online hotel reviews. Specifically, the study performs a detailed examination of the differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results among five types of travellers, namely, business, couples, families, friends and solo. Using a sample of 194,885 online reviews on TripAdvisor.com, this study identifies the hotel key factors and criterion importance by employing the term frequency-inverse document frequency algorithm and Word2Vec algorithm. Additionally, a bounded rationality behavioural decision support model with picture fuzzy information is proposed to address hotel selection problems for different traveller types. Our results suggest that different types of travellers present differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results. However, families and friends have similar hotel selection results. This study can serve as a reference for hotel managers in understanding traveller preferences and for tourism website optimisation.     

Using word of mouth data from social media to identify asymmetric competition in food retailing

Competition between food retailers is often assumed to be asymmetrical, whereby one retailer may compete with another retailer but not vice versa. Little is known about how (a)symmetric competition among retailers currently is. One way to investigate this is to use word of mouth data. A mixed methods analysis of customer comments on social media confirms the existence of asymmetric competition among German food retailers, mainly between supermarkets and discounters. Overall, consumers compare competitors frequently on the basis of their assortments, the price-performance ratio as well as quality and freshness. The results have implications for competition policy and strategic management.     

Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review

Statistical issues arising in modelling univariate extremes of a random sample have been successfully used in the most diverse fields, such as biometrics, finance, insurance and risk theory. Statistics of univariate extremes (SUE), the subject to be dealt with in this review paper, has recently faced a huge development, partially because rare events can have catastrophic consequences for human activities, through their impact on the natural and constructed environments. In the last decades, there has been a shift from the area of parametric SUE, based on probabilistic asymptotic results in extreme value theory, towards semi‐parametric approaches. After a brief reference to Gumbel's block methodology and more recent improvements in the parametric framework, we present an overview of the developments on the estimation of parameters of extreme events and on the testing of extreme value conditions under a semi‐parametric framework. We further discuss a few challenging topics in the area of SUE. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Soft Strategic Information and IPO Underpricing

Using content analysis, we measure the impact of soft information, derived from words in initial public offering (IPO) registration documents, on IPO pricing efficiency. First, using 2,298 U.S. IPOs from 1996–2008, we find that an IPO document's strategic tone correlates positively with the stock's first-day return; more frequent usage of positive and/or less frequent usage of negative strategic words leads to more IPO underpricing. Second, we find that an IPO document's strategic tone is negatively correlated with the stock's long-run return. Together, these findings imply that investors initially misprice soft information in registration statements, which mispricing is eventually corrected. Additionally, we create new content-analysis libraries for strategic words and introduce a survey-based library creation method and word-weighting system.     

Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe

This paper assesses to what extent differences in the characteristics of individuals (micro‐level perspective) and country‐specific factors (macro‐level perspective) can explain country differences with respect to material deprivation levels. Thus, our work aims to simultaneously consider the macro dimension and the predominantly individually‐oriented study field of material deprivation using multilevel techniques. We make use of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that country‐specific factors seem to be much more relevant than individual effects in explaining country differences in material deprivation. We estimate that the introduction of country‐specific factors reduces the proportion of total variance due to between‐country differences in deprivation by 72.7 percent, while individual‐level variables reduce this proportion by only 9.4 percent. We also show, through interaction variables, that the effect of sociodemographic characteristics can be shaped by institutional and structural factors, especially by the level of GDP.     

Limits to air travel growth: The case of infrequent flyers

Most air travel forecasts predict a long-term rise in demand, with limited consideration of any limits to growth. However for any given population there will be those who have not flown recently (‘infrequent flyers’), as well as non-flyers, and little is known about these and whether they are likely to fly in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse the characteristics of these groups and the reasons for their travel habits, using the UK as a case study. The findings show that infrequent flyers make up a heterogeneous consumer group whose non-flying is influenced more by budget constraints and personal circumstances than specific aviation factors. Comparisons with Belgian, German and Dutch infrequent flyers indicate some similarities, although there are differences in the relative importance of the reasons for not flying. The findings have implications for the aviation industry and regulators, and policy areas related to consumers and climate change.     

案例式教学法在概率论与数理统计课程中的应用

讨论了案例式教学法在概率论与数理统计课程教学中的应用,并给出了几个具体的教学案例。     

中国宏观经济总量的实时预报与短期预测——基于混频数据预测模型的实证研究

季度GDP的走势与波动不仅会影响政府的财政收支、企业的盈利和财务状况,甚至还会影响家庭和个人的收入与支出,是宏观经济总量预报、预测与分析的重中之重。传统的宏观经济总量预测模型是基于同频数据进行的,高频和超高频数据必需处理为低频数据,这不仅忽略了高频数据信息的变化,还影响了模型预报和预测的及时性,降低了模型的预测精度。本文将混合数据抽样模型(MIDAS)用于中国季度GDP的预报和预测,实证研究表明,出口是造成我国金融危机时期经济增长减速的主要因素,MIDAS模型在中国宏观经济总量的短期预测方面具有精确性的比较优势,在实时预报方面具有显著的可行性和时效性。